What are the 4 markers to look out for in the RES ramp up?
CRA analysed Future Energy Scenarios by the UK’s ESO to build a picture of the future.
UK’s ESO lays out ambitious renewable generation targets, but grid connection backlogs, supply chain limits, and incentive shortages call for more action.
Sources and notes: Future Energy Scenarios, ESO 2023 | CRA Analysis. (1) The Great Grid Upgrade, National Grid, 2024 (2) Government explores major reform to flagship renewables scheme to improve energy security and drive investment, DESNZ Press Release, 2023 (3) What is net zero and why do we need to act, DESNZ, 2022
ESO’s ‘Consumer Transformation’, 1223 TWh | x ~3 of Electricity vs 2022
Push towards engagement and electrification transforms the system
Sources and notes: Future Energy Scenarios, ESO 2023 | CRA Analysis. Expressed in TWh (net calorific) | * Implies delivery of fuels in its original form to consumers for subsequent use in heat, power and certain non-energy uses | ** Net exports, unidentified sources, miscellaneous
ESO’s ‘Falling Short’, 1355 TWh | x ~2 of Electricity vs 2022
Net zero faces delays, with fossil fuels remaining central to the system
Sources and notes: Future Energy Scenarios, ESO 2023 | CRA Analysis. Expressed in TWh (net calorific) | * Implies delivery of fuels in its original form to consumers for subsequent use in heat, power and certain non-energy uses | ** Net exports, unidentified sources, miscellaneous
CRA analysed Future Energy Scenarios by the UK’s ESO to build a picture of the future
Consumer Transformation
The 2050 net zero target is met through extensive engagement of consumers. Homeowners will upgrade for energy efficiency, using electric heat pumps and EVs, with smart control over electricity demand. To manage higher electricity peaks, the system employs energy storage, Demand Side Response (DSR), and smart management technologies.
– Future Energy Scenarios –
Falling Short
The 2050 net zero target is not achieved, with decarbonization making slower progress. Despite improvements in home insulation, there’s a continued heavy reliance on natural gas for heating. EV adoption increases at a slower pace, replacing petrol and diesel cars, but heavier vehicles like HGVs lag behind, still depending on diesel. Significant carbon emissions persist by 2050.
Sources and notes: Future Energy Scenarios, ESO 2023
