CRA AdequacyX

Changes in weather patterns that drive differences in output from a proposed renewable resource, load demand, or generator availability within a specific region.

As new technologies – like electric vehicles, electrification of heating, and data centers – are adopted in the grid, load profiles are expected to change and respond to weather differently.

Hourly renewable generation will vary based on installed capacity and underlying weather conditions.

Thermal generators will experience planned and unplanned outages. These unplanned outages may be correlated with weather conditions, and these relationships may change in the future as operators take steps to winterize their units and improve their fuel security.

Many utilities operate within broader markets and do not act as their own balancing authorities. During stress events, capacity shortfalls may lead to high market prices rather than loss of load events. CRA can estimate the potential cost of market exposure during these events using our probabilistic electricity pricing models.

CRA’s AdequacyX evaluates the resource adequacy of a proposed resource mix. This includes identifying the likelihood, duration, and magnitude of loss of load events (or forced market exposure events for utilities without their own balancing authority). The tool also assesses the resource adequacy of the proposed generator portfolio using popular risk metrics, and estimates the potential costs of loss of load or forced market exposure events. CRA can also score the resource adequacy of the proposed generator portfolio using popular risk metric and/or the likely cost of loss of load/forced market exposure events.

For portfolios facing high reliability risks, AdequacyX results are used to identify potential interventions. These interventions may include enhancing existing generating capacity, integrating energy-limited resources like storage, or increasing firm generating capacity.

AdequacyX compares the resource adequacy implications of various interventions by simulating the system with and without the proposed interventions. This helps identify the intervention with the best benefit-to-cost ratio. Potential interventions include firming fuel supplies, adding generating capacity, or expanding transmission.

CRA leverages AdequacyX  to provide an independent view of capacity accreditation (i.e., ELCC values) or planning reserve margin needs. CRA also supports investors and operators in evaluating the risks from changing capacity accreditation/ planning reserve margins or non-performance penalties.