Our client sought to in-license a phase 1 gene therapy asset for a rare disease and approached us to identify both price ranges and a sales forecast for future product scenarios and events in five global markets.
CRA conducted secondary and primary market research across the US, Japan and three EU markets to define price ranges and expected access trade-offs for the asset. Based on payer access restrictions, CRA developed likely physician uptake by price range and maximum market share potential per market. We developed a quantitative model to forecast 10-year sales given price/access trade-offs and uptake assumptions. Finally, we analysed the competitive landscape to determine potential threats and opportunities for the asset.
CRA issued recommendations on the business development opportunity for the gene therapy asset and identified next steps for implementation in each scoped market. We quantified the opportunity for two clinical scenarios based on expected product price, share and revenue and built a dynamic Excel tool that could be easily adjusted by our client for changing market conditions, competitor launches, and product pricing potential.