CRA’s Dr. Debra Aron, Dr. Andy Baziliauskas, and Dr. Olga Ukhaneva advised the telecommunications company SES, and wrote a report submitted to Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada (ISED) providing analysis and quantification of the effects on the Canadian economy of accelerating the repurposing of mid-band spectrum in Canada for 5G use.
At the time of the analysis, Canadian wireless carriers had an allotment of mid-band spectrum available for 5G use, while other spectrum was utilized by satellite providers who would then be required to relocate their services to other spectrum when the mid-band frequencies they occupy were auctioned. The report estimated the effect on Canadian GDP of creating incentives for the satellite service providers to accelerate their relocation efforts.
The authors applied data for 12 countries to project the 5G penetration rate that would occur in Canada if the relocation of mid-band spectrum were accelerated (so that wireless carriers could utilize it to deploy 5G sooner) and if it were not accelerated. They determined the difference in actual and projected 5G penetration rates between countries with at least 80 MHz of mid-band spectrum available per carrier, and those will less available mid-band spectrum. The authors then applied their estimate of the incremental impact of increased penetration of new wireless technology on the GDP from a multi-country regression analysis to the estimated differential in 5G penetration rates in Canada. They concluded that accelerating the repurposing of the 3800 MHz spectrum band, from December 2025 to December 2023, would increase Canadian GDP by $7.4 billion over three years, or by approximately $2.5 billion annually.
